The former head of the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers, Akylbek Zhaparov, published a post on social media commenting on the new “economic order” announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. According to him, on April 2, 2025, the world shook from an economic earthquake, the epicenter of which is not in the neighboring region, but in Washington. But its waves, he argues, will surely reach Bishkek.

According to the new U.S. trade policy, a universal 10 percent duty on all imports will be imposed on April 5, with no country-by-country exceptions. And from April 9, increased tariffs - up to 54% - will come into force for the states recognized as “unfair trading partners”.

Kyrgyzstan, by these standards, got off relatively mildly: Kyrgyz exports to the U.S. will be subject only to a basic duty of 10%. While, for example, China will face a cumulative tariff of 54%, Cambodia 49%, Vietnam 46%, India 26%, and the European Union 20%. Against this background, the rate for Kyrgyzstan looks almost like a preference.

“Is it a barrier? Or a competitive advantage?” - Akylbek Zhaparov asks. And he proposes to look at the situation from a different perspective: as a window of opportunity opening against the backdrop of tectonic shifts in global trade.

Global shocks - a chance for small economies?

According to the former head of the Cabinet of Ministers, the volume of Chinese exports to the United States ($620 billion) exceeds the entire foreign trade turnover of Kyrgyzstan ($16 billion) almost 40 times. But it is precisely in this scale that he sees potential: a sharp decline in the competitiveness of Chinese products could free up significant niches in the U.S. market that could be occupied.

Kyrgyzstan, he says, has several key advantages: low tariff burden, strategic location between China, EAEU and South Asia, low production costs, and most importantly, flexibility and motivation to adapt faster than large economies.

“While some are counting losses, others are increasing production”

Zhaparov listed the steps he believes Kyrgyzstan needs to take now:

• Offer Asian manufacturers a platform for localization, packaging and re-export;
• Create export assembly zones under U.S. standards;
• Invest in logistics, certification and digitalization of customs;
• Develop an export strategy “through Kyrgyzstan”;
• Exempt export-oriented producers from taxes;
• Support local businesses ready to enter global markets.

He concluded his post with a question that sounds both a challenge and a hope: “Will Kyrgyzstan be on the new economic map of the world?